Egemen Bağış, Turkey's EU Minister, visited Hürriyet today.
With other newsroom editors, I also had the opportunity to ask a couple of questions, regarding the EU negotiations, as well as other foreign policy issues like the genocide denial law in France.
Bağış surprised me a lot. I was expecting to watch the seemingly shallow politician I know from the media... the one that recently rebuked French President Nicolas Sarkozy with a very rude Turkish expression, just before saying that his 'heels become higher as he lies,' like a dwarf Pinocchio.
At Hürriyet meeting, though, I found Bağış almost as a non-partisan expert, free of such a populist rhetoric, surely because it was a Q&A session not directed at a political audience, but conducted as an honest meeting during a visit of courtesy.
Bağış, who briefly worked at Hürriyet's New York office in the early 90s, drew an accurate picture of the relationship between the European Union and Turkey. In contrary to the public chutzpah of Turkey's current foreign policy, he hinted that the internal debate in the government is much more realistic. As an instance, he vigorously emphasized that, as Turks, we shouldn't be too proud of our standing, especially on the economic front. He said that he is well aware that Germany, for instance, will still have an economy three times bigger than Turkey, even if Ankara can reach its goals in 2023.
At the same time, Bağış was rationally optimistic about the future of Turkey-EU relations. He believes that it all boils down to the political possibilities, which may well be in Turkey's advantage. Sarkozy's demise in the 2012 presidential elections seems likely, although it is not guaranteed. The French President tries to make profit from Turkophobia to get the far-right votes, a politically safe method as it is perceived as "less racist," comparing to a wholesale Islamophobia. Thanks to this tactic, he may win the elections narrowly. But he should also be aware that this tactic, which worked in the previous elections, may already be outdated. He may need to find another "hat-trick" to win this time.
So, if Sarkozy loses, which is more probable, there may be a domino-effect in the EU, which may be concluded by Turkey's full membership. With Sarkozy's fall, the Greek Cypriots whom are abused by the anti-Turkish Central European lobby in the EU will be without their patron. Then, even Angela Merkel -who is currently not blocking any negotiation chapters with Turkey- may change her mind about Turkey's EU membership, when she will remain as the only powerful player of the anti-Turkish front. Merkel is more pragmatic and less ideological.
After talking an hour or so, I wished that we could hear the "real" Bağış more frequently. Of course, I understand that it is not possible. After all, this is Turkey, not a Scandinavian country, and this is the way that we're doing politics. And maybe this is why we are not living in an environment like the one in Scandinavia...
