A Guesstimate Analysis: Exchanging Turkish Journalists for Iranian Pilgrims

Turkish journalist Adem Ozkose (L) and cameraman Hamit Coskun (R) pose with Foundation for Human Rights and Freedoms and Humanitarian Relief (IHH) President Fehmi Bulent Yildirim in Damascus in this handout picture released by IHH.

Two Turkish journalists, who were jailed by the Syrian regime, were released on Saturday after two months of imprisonment, as part of what appears to be a prisoner swap between Turkey and Iran through intermediaries in Syria.

I had strongly condemned the Syrian regime when they shamelessly tried to treat the journalists as prisoners of war, although I had reservations about the professional standards of both Turks, who sound more like activists, then journalists, when they talked.

Now I'm extremely happy that they are with their families again, safe and sound, but the Turkish public is left in dark by authorities and it is disappointing. Details of the deal are not known and it is not expected to be revealed by authorities anytime soon.

We only have bits and pieces to have an idea about the solution of the puzzle. Here is the most overlooked detail of the exchange deal:

"For its part, Turkey has also helped release a number of Iranian pilgrims held captive by Syrian insurgents, according to Iranian media reports. Two of the Iranian pilgrims 'kidnapped in northern Syria by an armed group' departed Istanbul for Tehran on May 12 evening, Irna news agency reported. Some 18 of them had been released earlier, while there are still seven of them being held captive in Syria."

It was previously reported that the Syrian regime was bargaining for a deal, demanding the deportation of some members of the Free Syrian Army in Turkey. Some reports were writing about two generals who recently fled the Syrian army.

We don't have the exact facts now, but the most likely picture about the exchange deal is there: 

1) Syria wanted those renegade generals, but Turkey didn't sell out the Syrian opposition which it supported. 

2) Ankara seeked the help of Iran, Syria's main ally in the region. And Tehran had some wishes, too. 

3) So, Iran asked Ankara to convince the Syrian opposition to release two Iranians (who are probably not pilgrims at all), who were jailed in one of their northern strongholds in Syria. 

4) Damascus was persuaded by Iran and the exchange deal was ready, but it took two months for the intermediaries to realize it. 

5) In the end, Turkey thanked Iran, because it managed to secure the release of Turkish journalists for a much lower price: Instead of two former Syrian generals, just two Iranian "pilgrims." 

6) Simply, the Syrian regime is the biggest loser here, as it couldn't get anything except more sympathy from its ally Iran. And the winner is IHH, the controversial Turkish NGO, which scored a PR victory as the main hub for the successful deal.


UPDATE ON MAY 17TH: I learned that the editor of the Ozkose's newspaper confirmed that there was a deal to swap two Turks with two Iranians...